By Dr Ohio O. Ojeagbase  

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, distilled a harsh truth of international relations into an incisive metaphor: “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.” Uttered in contexts of global finance and climate governance, this phrase captures the zero-sum dynamics of decision-making in multilateral forums, where the powerful dictate terms, whether fiscal austerity through IMF programs, trade rules via the WTO, or climate finance allocations at COP summits and the excluded absorb the fallout in the form of debt burdens, market access barriers, or stranded assets. In global finance, it evokes the 2008 crisis, where G7 central banks coordinated liquidity injections, leaving emerging markets to manage capital flight. Geopolitically, it recalls how Bretton Woods institutions were designed by wartime victors, embedding Western dominance. For economic governance, it underscores how rule-setting in bodies like the Financial Stability Board privileges incumbents, turning outsiders into passive recipients of externally imposed standards. Carney’s warning is not mere rhetoric; it is a call to agency in a system where influence is asymmetrical and exclusion is structural.

Today’s global power is exercised through a triad of rule-setting, enforcement, and consequence-bearing. The United States, European Union, and China dominate agenda-setting in institutions like the IMF (where voting shares reflect outdated GDP weights) and the World Bank, enforcing compliance via conditional lending and sanctions. Tech giants and sovereign wealth funds shape capital flows, while commodity prices are benchmarked in London or New York. Those at the periphery often developing nations, bear the consequences: volatility from dollar cycles, technology chokepoints, and climate impacts without commensurate reparations. This asymmetry persists despite formal multilateralism, as evidenced by Africa’s mere 6% share of global trade despite 18% of the world’s population.

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Africa’s historical position exemplifies this exclusion. Post-colonial integration locked the continent into commodity export dependency, with structural adjustment programs in the 1980s–90s enforcing liberalization that dismantled nascent industries without building alternatives. Dependency theory, from dependency on raw material exports to aid conditionality, has manifested in missed opportunities: the 1970s oil boom enriched elites but not institutions; the 2000s commodity super cycle funded consumption, not transformation. Multilateral debt relief like HIPC provided breathing room but tied reforms to Washington Consensus prescriptions, sidelining local priorities. The result: growth upticks averaging 5% annually since 2000, yet persistent poverty and fragility, as population growth outpaces per capita gains.

Yet the current global transition, geopolitical fragmentation post-Ukraine war, the energy transition from fossil fuels, demographic youth bulges in the Global South, AI-driven technological leaps, and capital reallocation toward resilient assets creates a rare inflection point. Fragmentation erodes U.S.-led unipolarity, opening space for multipolarity where non-traditional powers negotiate bilaterally. The energy transition demands African critical minerals (cobalt, lithium, graphite and more) for batteries, positioning the continent as the major supplier and potential processor. In terms of demographics which favor Africa: by 2050, it will house 25% of humanity, with a working-age population swelling whilst Europe and China age shrink. Technology, via accelerating generation in fintech and renewables, outstrips industrial-era infrastructure. Capital, fleeing volatility in the North, seeks yield in emerging markets with reform momentum like Nigeria. This convergence offers Africa leverage if seized now.

Nigeria stands as Africa’s pivotal case study, embodying untapped potential across multiple pillars. Demographically, its 230 million people (projected to hit 400 million by 2050) form West Africa’s consumer market core, with a median age of 18.1 fueling labor abundance amidst global shortages. Strategically, its geography overlapping the Gulf of Guinea, close to Europe and the Americas, anchors maritime trade routes, positioning Lagos and environs as a logistics hub rivaling Dubai. In energy and commodities, Nigeria holds Africa’s largest proven oil and gas reserves (we are a gas-rich country that has oil), but the transition elevates its gas (for blue hydrogen) and solid minerals (rare earths, bauxite, critical metals). Rather than stranded assets, these can fuel value chains: gas-to-power for industrialization, minerals processing under AfCFTA rules of origin. Financially, the naira’s float and CBN reforms signal credibility, with capital markets growing via NGX listings and pension fund assets topping $40 billion. Diplomatically, Nigeria’s ECOWAS leadership, AU peacekeeping roles, and non-aligned stance (e.g., BRICS interest) confer regional heft, as seen in its mediation in Sahel conflicts. 

Being “at the table” demands more than presence; it requires shaping outcomes. For Nigeria, policy coherence is foundational: aligning fiscal-monetary stances for debt sustainability (public debt at 40% of GDP), whilst legislating and enforcing investors’ capital protections and judicial independence for enforcement of financial fraud in the markeplaces to attract FDI. You build institutional credibility by streamlining bureaucracy through digital single windows, following Rwanda’s model, to improve Ease of Doing Business rankings and by launching an Integrity in Business Culture Index to create a trusted environment where entrepreneurs collaborate without fear of fraud or broken trust. Strategic alliances amplify voice: deepening China ties for infrastructure without sovereignty erosion; partnering EU on green minerals via CBAM exemptions; leading AfCFTA implementation to forge intra-African rules preempting global ones. Economic statecraft means deploying sovereign wealth (from NNPC dividends) into strategic funds, similar to Norway’s, for tech and human capital.